The uncertain future of the printed book

I love to write. Always have. I dreamed of being the next great novelist in high school and went to a small liberal arts college to be an English major. Did I mention small? In my sophomore year, I struggled to attain a “C” average in Early American Literature and decided the professor of that course and I were not a good match. In a small school, we would see too much of each other during the following years for me to compete academically well in the major. So, I switched to economics.

Vietnam interfered with plans for graduate school. As a result, my post-graduate education, courtesy of the United States Navy, qualified me as a pilot. As an officer, my creative writing was initially limited to fitness reports, but then my first Commanding Officer gave me collateral responsibilities as the squadron’s legal officer. That opened up a whole new dimension of writing, providing briefs on the various misconducts of the colorful collection of men and women who served our country at the time.

When the war ended and I had fulfilled my active-duty commitment, I joined an entrepreneurial company building a national dinner cruise fleet. My writing there included occasional advertising copy, but I exercised my creative literary juices at home by composing clever poetry to commemorate family milestones. Finally, after a long and moderately successful professional career, I retired with the time to embrace the hobby I dearly loved.

My publishing career begins

I published a novel in my first year after selling my successful little cafe …                              proud that it earned five excellent reviews. One of those came from my attorney. Another came from my brother and a third from my sister. A former employee wrote the fourth one, and fifth one was posted by my friend and writing mentor. With few expenses through the self-publishing process, I made a small profit, selling nearly 300 copies.

Emboldened and encouraged, I wrote a second book, this time distributing a hundred free copies in advance of the release. I hoped the gratis books would lead to favorable critiques posted to Amazon … and it worked! My second novel earned twenty-five positive reviews and a favorable mention from a national writing contest. Book sales were roughly equivalent to the first book, but because of my expense for the copies given away, I posted a small net loss on that novel.

Determined I was getting the hang of the writing part of my new career, I invested in a professional book cover and editing for book #3. I also attracted a publisher. Those changes in strategy have already rewarded me with over sixty positive reviews posted to Amazon and Goodreads, many from readers I don’t know.

The book has also won three writing awards and a five-star review from an internationally recognized literary service. All these accolades haven’t impacted sales much. And with the extra design, editing, and publishing expenses I’m on track to claim a five-figure tax loss on my writing endeavors this year. If I get any better, I’ll need to give the hobby up for financial reasons!

The publishing industry is in turmoil

I’m not complaining, and only jest about forsaking the craft. I’m not naive, though. The dynamics of the rapidly evolving digital economy are changing the way we spend leisure time. If you don’t already know it, I’m sorry to deliver the news—the printed book might be going the way of the dinosaur, the 8-track, and the VCR. As someone finally getting to an age where time is available to devote to writing, the realization pains me. The table below, however, delivers the indisputable facts.

Books Sold Online in 2020

Source: Bookstat

Wow!

In 2020, of the approximately 2.6 million printed books purchased online, only 268 sold over 100,000 copies. That’s about 1 in 10,000.

96% of all book titles produced sold less than 1000 copies!

Hold on to your seats for the next statistic—at the high end, in the most elite class of successful books written,

Only 8 printed books sold over 500,000 copies

Compare this to the top-ten best performing Netflix films in the same year— that saw over 68 million views — in their first month! Staggering, isn’t it? And the magnitude of the number confirms this isn’t a blip but an unstoppable trend. No matter how many of us may dislike the trajectory, we can’t stop it any easier than we can reverse evolution.

Time marches forward

People with my hair color are prone to lament the passing of the “good old days.” But, not me. I grew up in a home with a choice of three tv channels, two of which worked marginally. Today, I can access over 200 channels that appear perfectly… unless the satellite gets lost in a snowstorm.

As a farm boy in Maryland, I used to spend every new dollar earned on a 45 RPM record. Over several years, I accumulated a considerable collection, and I’d haul it around in a box with my clunky phonograph player to play at friends’ houses. After a while, the records would inevitably develop scratches and pops, and the needle on the record player had to be replaced constantly. I now carry an entire archive of music around in my iPhone, downloading just about any song ever recorded for free from my Apple account. I can listen with headphones, on my home system, or, with a few keystrokes, on your home system.

Technology moves us forward productively, generally enhancing our lives.

Talented writers will adjust to the transformation occurring, and the smart ones will exploit the new opportunities that become available. The Trumps and Bidens of the world will always need somebody to write speeches; HBO and Netflix will continue to experience rising demands for screenplays and scripts; Tom Brady may need a ghostwriter to help him write his memoir. Over time, the laws of supply and demand will eclipse theory and opinion to establish a natural economic balance.

The future for authors?

So, where does that leave older, independent authors like me? The sensible and pragmatic ones will continue writing for the enjoyment of the craft, satisfied by an occasional public review on Amazon or a compliment from a friend. For the lucky ones—a scriptwriter or a major publisher might serendipitously bump into a manuscript that receives unusual critical recognition or many positive customer reviews. Luck, however, favors the prepared and the gifted—so the quest for improvement is endless. That process is exhilarating and, I think, healthy for us older writers.